Executive Summary

Q2 2025 was operationally strong: revenue rose to $207.6M, Core FFO/share increased to $0.63 (+3.3% YoY), Cash NOI grew 8.9% YoY, and liquidity improved to $961.2M; GAAP EPS was $0.27, down YoY due to lower gains on asset sales and higher interest expense .
Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue beat by ~1.1%, EBITDA modestly exceeded, and GAAP EPS (~Primary EPS) beat meaningfully; Core FFO/share was solid at $0.63 (see Estimates Context) .
Guidance raised: Core FFO/share to $2.48–$2.52 (midpoint +$0.02), same‑store cash NOI growth to 3.75–4.0% (raised low end), retention to 75%, credit loss cut to 50 bps, ending same‑store occupancy loss improved to 75 bps; G&A lowered to $52–$53M .
Potential stock catalysts: guidance upgrade, sustained leasing spreads (cash +24.6% in Q2; 24.5% addressed YTD), Moody’s upgrade to Baa2, and $550M private notes at 5.65% bolstering balance sheet and liquidity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Leasing execution and pricing power: 4.2M sf commenced in Q2 with cash rent change +24.6% and SL rent change +41.1%; management highlighted “we have leased 90.8% of the operating portfolio square feet we currently expect to lease in 2025 achieving cash leasing spreads of 24.5%” .
Financial resilience: Core FFO/share rose to $0.63 (+3.3% YoY), Cash NOI +8.9% YoY, and same‑store cash NOI +3.0% in Q2 (+3.2% YTD), driven by 26.1% YTD leasing spreads and 2.9% annual escalators .
Balance sheet strength and ratings momentum: Moody’s raised the corporate rating to Baa2; STAG funded $550M of senior unsecured notes at a 5.65% weighted average rate; net debt/annualized run rate adj. EBITDAre improved to 5.1x; liquidity rose to $961.2M .
- Quote: “Achieving this upgrade despite this year's market turmoil is a testament to the strength of the STAG platform and balance sheet” — CFO .

What Went Wrong

GAAP earnings headwinds: Net income attributable to common fell 16.4% YoY to $50.0M and GAAP diluted EPS declined to $0.27 vs $0.33 in Q2’24, impacted by lower gains on sales and higher interest expense YoY .
Occupancy mix and retention normalized: Q2 retention was 75.3% (vs 85.3% in Q1), and same‑store cash NOI growth was partially offset by ~90 bps average occupancy loss YTD, with some bulk distribution markets (Indianapolis/Columbus/Memphis) still weaker .
Interest burden: Interest expense increased to $33.6M (Q2’24: $27.4M), reflecting a higher rate environment despite improved liquidity posture .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$189.8	$205.6	$207.6	$205.4*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.33	$0.49	$0.27	$0.215*
Core FFO per diluted share ($)	$0.61	$0.61	$0.63	N/A
Cash NOI ($USD Millions)	$148.4	$157.2	$161.7	N/A
Adjusted EBITDAre ($USD Millions)	$138.7	$146.4	$152.0	$150.8*

Notes: One transcript version reported Core FFO/share at $0.53; authoritative press release/8‑K shows $0.63 .
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown: STAG reports consolidated industrial real estate performance; no revenue by segment provided. Portfolio KPI detail presented below .

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Operating Portfolio Occupancy (%)	96.8%	97.0%
Total Portfolio Occupancy (%)	95.9%	96.3%
Leasing Commenced (sf, Operating Portfolio)	5.0M	4.216M
Cash Rent Change (%)	27.3%	24.6%
Straight-Line Rent Change (%)	42.1%	41.1%
Retention (%)	85.3%	75.3%
Same‑Store Cash NOI Growth (%)	3.4%	3.0% (Q2); 3.2% YTD
Net Debt / Annualized RR Adj. EBITDAre (x)	5.2x (Mar 31)	5.1x (Jun 30)
Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$493.1 (Mar 31)	$961.2 (Jun 30)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Core FFO per share	FY 2025	$2.46–$2.50	$2.48–$2.52	Raised
Same‑Store Cash NOI Growth	FY 2025	3.5–4.0%	3.75–4.0%	Raised low end
Retention	FY 2025	70–75%	75%	Raised
Ending Same‑Store Occupancy Loss	FY 2025	~100 bps decrease	~75 bps decrease	Improved
Credit Loss	FY 2025	75 bps (incl. ATD)	50 bps	Lowered
G&A Expense	FY 2025	$52–$54M	$52–$53M	Lowered
Cash Leasing Spreads	FY 2025	~25%	23–25%	Maintained/slightly moderated
Acquisition Volume	FY 2025	$350–$650M; 6.25–6.75% cap	Maintained wide range (discipline; back‑end weighted)	Maintained
Dividends	Q3 2025	N/A	Monthly $0.124167 maintained	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Tariffs/macro	Too early to quantify; tenants storing goods; uncertainty	“Desensitization to tariff headlines”; businesses resuming decisions	Stabilizing sentiment
Supply chain diversification/nearshoring	Beneficiary of near/on‑shoring; strong footprint	Diversification remains a priority for tenants	Continuing
Leasing spreads & escalators	2024 spreads 28.3% ; Q1 spreads 27.3%, escalators 2.8–2.9%	Q2 spreads 24.6%; weighted escalators 2.9% and rising toward 3–3.5% new deals	High but moderating; escalators inching up
Regional trends	Post‑election demand; strong Greenville/Milwaukee/Chicago/Nashville	Strength in Midwest, Nashville, Houston; bulk distribution markets weaker; border uncertainty (El Paso)	Mixed; consistent pattern
Development pipeline	2.5M sf activity; Spartanburg 474k lease May 1	~3.0M sf across 12 bldgs; 58% delivered, 69% leased; JV: Louisville 500k cross‑dock	Growing; progressing
Capital markets/liquidity	Liquidity $623M; minimal 2025 maturities	Moody’s upgrade to Baa2; $550M private notes @5.65%; liquidity $961M; net debt/EBITDA 5.1x	Strengthening
Credit/tenant health	ATD bankruptcy monitored; current on rent	ATD assumed all 7 leases (1 month free rent on 5); Vitamin Shoppe assumed; credit loss YTD ~17 bps; guidance 50 bps	Improving

Management Commentary

CEO: “We have leased 90.8% of the operating portfolio square feet we currently expect to lease in 2025 achieving cash leasing spreads of 24.5%… users cannot delay space decisions in perpetuity and supply chain diversification remains a priority” .
CFO: “Core FFO per share guidance revision to $2.48 to $2.52 per share, an increase of $0.02 at the midpoint… credit loss guidance reduced from 75 basis points to 50 basis points” .
CFO on escalators: “Weighted average rental escalator across the portfolio is 2.9%… we’re not seeing leases that don’t begin with a 3% rental escalator… signing at ~3–3.5%” .
CIO: Pipeline “60%+ one‑off assets, 20–30% portfolios… cautiously optimistic about an active second half” .

Q&A Highlights

Leasing and regional demand: Strength in Midwest/Nashville/Houston; bulk distribution markets (Indy/Columbus/Memphis) weaker; lease‑up times averaging 9–12 months; evidence of zero downtime in a 500k sf asset .
User‑driven transactions: More well‑funded users buying assets; removes vacancy; attractive pricing, especially in onshore manufacturing markets (Midwest/Southeast/Texas) .
Financing and maturities: Refinancing ~$300M term loan due early 2026 ongoing; optionality between private placements and potential entry to public bond market after securing S&P rating .
Development leasing: Buckets show in‑service 76% leased; prospects in Greenville; Tampa East vacancy in a 5% vacancy market; Nashville healthy; under‑construction too early but good markets .
Embedded rent bumps: Weighted average escalators 2.9% portfolio, trending higher with new deals at ~3–3.5% .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 beats: Revenue $207.6M vs $205.4M estimate (beat ~1.1%); EBITDA $152.0M vs $150.8M estimate (beat); GAAP/Primary EPS $0.27 vs $0.215 estimate (beat) .
Consensus breadth: EPS (# est.) 2; revenue (# est.) 3 for Q2 2025*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Metric	Q2 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$207.6	$205.4*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$152.0 (Adj. EBITDAre)	$150.8*
Primary EPS ($)	$0.27 (GAAP diluted EPS)	$0.215*
EPS - # of Estimates	—	2.0*
Revenue - # of Estimates	—	3.0*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Leasing pricing power intact: Cash spreads remained elevated (+24.6% in Q2), with 90.8% of 2025 leasing addressed; expect 23–25% spreads for the year .
Guidance momentum with cleaner credit: Core FFO/share raised and credit loss cut to 50 bps after ATD/Vitamin Shoppe resolutions; supports earnings visibility .
Balance sheet optionality: Moody’s Baa2 upgrade and $550M private notes at 5.65% bolster liquidity/net leverage; positioned to pursue back‑half‑weighted acquisitions with discipline .
Development as growth engine: ~3.0M sf pipeline with targeted markets (Louisville, Nashville, Greenville, Tampa); leasing progressing, optionality to single‑tenant deals where attractive .
Regional mix matters: Strength in Midwest/Sunbelt continues; bulk distribution markets still softer; underwriting/lease‑up assumptions prudent at 9–12 months .
Near‑term trading: Positive setup on raised guidance and beats vs consensus; watch acquisition execution timing and macro rate/tariff headlines as sentiment drivers .
Medium‑term thesis: Durable same‑store growth from escalators (~3%+ trending), strong spreads, and balance sheet flexibility; industrial demand supported by diversification/onshoring themes .

Additional Q2 2025 corporate items: Monthly dividend maintained at $0.124167/share for Q3 2025 ; Steven T. Kimball promoted to COO (effective Aug 1, 2025), reinforcing focus on operations and development .

STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary